The sharps are backing the under despite the public hammering the over, and it's easy to see why with Ashcraft's 3.07 ERA looking like the real deal against a Phillies offense that has to face him while their own starter Nola is getting shelled at 5.58. When you've got fewer sharp bets but more sharp money moving the line, it usually means the big guys see something the public doesn't, and in this case it's probably that Pittsburgh's pitching staff can keep this one lower than the inflated number suggests.

The sharps are backing Burke's superior pitching against a struggling Baz who carries a losing record and elevated ERA. Baltimore is a public darling that often inflates their lines, and the market is clearly overvaluing them here despite the clear pitching edge going to Chicago. With 72% of the sharp money on the White Sox, this looks like a classic fade-the-public spot on an overpriced favorite.

The sharps are hammering Baltimore despite facing a worse pitching matchup on paper, which screams market inefficiency around the widely-bet White Sox. Baltimore's bullpen has been more reliable lately, and this looks like a classic fade-the-public spot where casual money overvalues Chicago based on the surface-level ERA advantage. The sharp action clearly sees value in taking the Orioles at plus-money with such lopsided smart money flowing their way.